Emerging technologies


Emerging technologies are technologies that are perceived as capable of changing the status quo. These technologies are still controversial and relatively undeveloped in potential, such as preimplantation genetic diagnosisand gene therapy which date to 1989 and 1990 respectively.

Emerging technologies are characterized by radical novelty, relatively fast growth, coherence, prominent impact, and uncertainty and ambiguity. In other words, an emerging technology can be defined as “a radically novel and relatively fast growing technology” by a certain degree of coherence persisting over time and the potential to have a significant impact on the socio-economic domain (s) which is “The most prominent impact, however, is in the future of the composition of actors, institutions and patterns of interactions among those in the future, and the phase is still somewhat uncertain and ambiguous.” . [1]

Emerging technologies include a variety of technologies such as educational technology , information technology , nanotechnology , biotechnology , cognitive science , psychotechnology , robotics , and artificial intelligence . [2]

New fields of technology may result from the convergence of different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence has previously been made to separate technologies such as voice (and telephony), data (and productivity applications), and video together so that they share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.

Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage ; [3] converging technologies representing previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of the impact, status and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies vary.

History of emerging technologies

Main article: History of technology

In the history of technology , emerging technologies [4] [5] are in progress and innovation in various fields of technology .

Over centuries innovative methods and technologies are developed and opened up. Some of these technologies are due to the scientific research, and others of commercial research and development .

Technological growth includes incremental developments and disruptive technologies . An example of the former was the gradual roll-out of DVD (digital video disc) as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technology compact disc . By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and makes it redundant, for example, the replacement of horse-drawn carriages by automobiles.

Emerging technology debates

See also: Technology and society

Many writers, including computer scientist Bill Joy , [6] have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity’s future. Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites for good or evil . They could use it as “good shepherds” for the rest of humanity, or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology. [7]

Advocates of the benefits of technological change Typically see emerging and converging technologies’ve Offering hope for the betterment of the human conditions . Cyberphilosophers Alexander Bard and Jan Söderqvist argues in The Futurica Trilogy That while Man himself is constant Basically Throughout human history ( genes changing very slowly), all falling currency is Rather a Direct Indirect gold result of technological innovation ( same changes very fast) since new ideas always emanate from technology and not the other way around. [8]It should be regarded as a constant history and technology as its main variable. However, criticism of the risks of the risks of change, and even some advocates such as the transhumanist philosopher Nick Bostrom , warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers, may even contribute to the extinction of humanity itself; ie, some of them could involve existential risks . [9] [10]

Much ethical debate centers on issues of distributive justice in allocating access to beneficial forms of technology. Some thinkers, such as environmentalist ethicist Bill McKibben , oppose the continuing development of advanced technology, which is likely to be distributed unequally in ways that could not be better . [11] By contrast, inventor Ray Kurzweil is among techno-utopians who believe that emerging and converging technologies could bring about poverty and abolish suffering. [12]

Some analysts Such As Martin Ford, author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future , [13] argues That did information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will Ultimately result in significant unemployment as machinery The most routine jobs.

As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs can be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning [14] can do so much more. This may be the result of a higher unemployment rate, a higher incomes rate, and a higher concentration of income and wealth, and a larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could be used to reduce the growth of consumer spending and economic growth. [15]

See also: Technological innovation system , Technological utopianism , and Techno-progressivism
See also: Current research in evolutionary biology , Bioconservatism , Bioethics , and Biopolitics

Examples

Main article: List of emerging technologies

Artificial intelligence

Main articles: Artificial intelligence and Outline of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence ( AI ) is the intelligence exhibited by machines or software, and the branch of computer science that develops machines and software with human-like intelligence. Major AI researchers and textbooks define the field as “the study and design of intelligent agents”, where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success. John McCarthy , who coined the term in 1955, defines it as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines”.

The central problems (or goals) of AI research include reasoning, knowledge, planning, learning, natural language processing , perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects. General intelligence (or ” strong AI “) is still in the field’s long-term goals. Currently popular approaches include deep learning, statistical methods, computational intelligence and traditional symbolic AI. There are an enormous number of tools used in AI, including versions of search and mathematical optimization, logic, methods based on probability and economics, and many others.

3D Printing

Main article: 3D Printing

3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, has been posited by Jeremy Rifkin and others as part of the third industrial revolution . [18]

Combined with Internet technology, 3D printing would allow for instantaneous product availability.

Although this technology is still very much a commodity, it is a controversial product in the field of 3D printed guns. [19]

Gene therapy

Main article: Gene therapy
See also: Genetic engineering timeline

Gene therapy was first successfully demonstrated in late 1990 / early 1991 for adenosine deaminase deficiency , although the treatment was somatic – that is, did not affect the patient’s germ line and was not heritable. This gene therapy – therapy affecting the gametes and offspring of patients.

Between September 1990 and January 2014 there were around 2,000 genes. [20]

Cancer vaccines

Main article: Cancer vaccine

cancer vaccine is a vaccine that causes cancer or cancer in certain high-risk individuals. Vaccines that treat cancer are known as therapeutic cancer vaccines. There are currently no vaccines able to prevent cancer in general.

On April 14, 2009, Denderon Corporation announced that their Phase III clinical trial of Provenge , a cancer vaccine designed to treat prostate cancer, had been shown to increase in survival. It has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer patients on April 29, 2010. [21] The approval of Provenge has stimulated interest in this type of therapy. [22]

In vitro meat

Main article: In vitro meat

In vitro meat , aussi called Expired cultured meat , clean meat , cruelty-free meat , shmeat , and test-tube meat , is an animal-flesh product That HAS never been hand of a living animal with exception of the fetal calf serum taken from a slaughtered cow. In the 21st century, several research projects have been worked on in vitro meat in the laboratory. [23] The first in vitro beefburger , created by a Dutch team, Was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013. [24] There REMAIN Difficulties to be Overcome before in vitromeat becomes commercially available. [25] Cultured meat is prohibitively expensive, but it is expected that it could be reduced to that of conventionally obtained meat and improved technology. [26] [27] In vitro meat is also an ethical issue. Some argue that it is less objectionable than it is that it does not involve killing and reducing the risk of animal cruelty, while others disagree with it. quote needed ]

Nanotechnology

Main articles: Nanotechnology and Outline of Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology (sometimes shortened to nanotech ) is the manipulation of matter on an atomic , molecular , and supramolecular scale. The earliest, extended description of nanotechnology [28] [29] referred to the specific goal of precisely manipulating atoms and molecules for manufacturing of macroscale products, also referred to as molecular nanotechnology . The Nanotechnology Initiative , which defines nanotechnology, is one of the largest nanoscale nanotubes in the world.. This definition reflects the fact that quantum mechanical effects are important to this quantum-realm scale, and the definition of a specific below the given size threshold.

Robotics

Main articles: Robotics and Outline of Robotics

Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots , [30] and their systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing. These technologies can be compared to those of humans in the human environment, where they resemble humans in appearance, behavior, and / or cognition. Many of today’s robots are inspired by nature contributing to the field of bio-inspired robotics .

Stem cell therapy

Main article: Stem cell therapy

Stem cell therapy is an intervention strategy that introduces new adult stem cells into damaged tissue. Many medical researchers believe that stem cell therapy has the potential to change the face of human disease and alleviate suffering. [31] The ability of stem cells to self-renew and give rise to subsequent genera- tions of variable levels of differentiation, [32] offers significant potential for generation of tissues that can be replaced with diseased and damaged areas in the body, with minimal risk of rejection and side effects.

Development of emerging technologies

As innovation drives economic growth, and large economic rewards come from new inventions, a great deal of resources (funding and effort) go into the development of emerging technologies. Some of the sources of these resources are described below …

Research and development

Research and development is directed towards the advancement of technology in general, and therefore includes the development of emerging technologies. See also List of countries by research and development spending .

Applied research is a form of systematic inquiry involving the practical application of science. It accesses and uses some of the research communities’ accumulated theories, knowledge, methods, and techniques, for a specific, often state-, business-, or client-driven purpose.

Science policy is the subject of public policy, which is concerned with the conduct of science and research, including the funding of science, development, health care and environmental monitoring.

DARPA

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is an agency of the US Department of Defense responsible for the development of emerging technologies for the use of the military.

DARPA was created in 1958 as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) by President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Its purpose is to formulate and execute research and development projects to expand the frontiers of technology and science, with the aim to reach beyond immediate military requirements.

Projects funded by DARPA have provided significant technologies that influence many non-military fields, such as computer networking and graphical user interfaces in information technology.

Technology competitions and awards

There are awards that provide incentive to push the limits of technology (commonly synonymous with emerging technologies). Note that while some of these awards reward achievement after-the-fact through analysis of the merits of the breakthroughs, others provide incentive via competitions for awards offered for goals yet to be achieved.

The Orteig Prize was a $ 25,000 award offered in 1919 by French hotelier Raymond Orteig for the first flight between New York City and Paris. In 1927, underdog Charles Lindbergh won the prize in a modified single-engine Ryan aircraft called the Spirit of St. Louis . In total, nine teams spent $ 400,000 in pursuit of the Orteig Prize.

The XPRIZE series of awards, public competitions and managed by the non-profit organization called the X Prize Foundation , are intended to encourage development that could benefit mankind. The most high-profile XPRIZE to date was the $ 10,000,000 Ansari XPRIZE related to spacecraft development, which was awarded in 2004 for the development of SpaceShipOne .

The Turing Award is an annual prize given by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) to “an individual selected for contributions of a technical nature made to the computing community”. It is stipulated that “The contributions should be of lasting and major technical importance to the computer field”. The Turing Award is recognized as the highest distinction in computer science, and in 2014 grew to $ 1,000,000.

The Millennium Technology Prize is awarded once every two years by Technology Academy Finland , an independent fund established by the Finnish industry and the Finnish state in partnership. The first recipient was Tim Berners-Lee , inventor of the World Wide Web .

In 2003, David Gobel’s seed-funded Methuselah Mouse Prize (Mprize) to encourage the development of new life-extending therapies in mice, which are genetically similar to humans. So far, three Mouse Prizes have been awarded: one for breaking longevity records to Dr. Andrzej Bartke of Southern Illinois University ; one for late-onset rejuvenation strategies to Dr. Stephen Spindler of the University of California ; and one to Dr. Z. Dave Sharp for his work with the pharmaceutical rapamycin.

Role of science fiction

Sci-fi has criticized developing and future technologies, but also inspires innovation and new technology. This topic has been discussed and discussed in more detail. Cinema and media theorist Vivian Sobchack examines the dialogue between science fiction films and the imagination. Technology impacts artists and how they portray their fictionalized subjects, but the fictional world gives back to science by broadening imagination. How William Shatner Changed the World is a documentary that gives a number of real-world examples of actualized technological imaginations. While more prevalent in the early years of science fiction with writers Arthur C. Clarke, new authors still find ways to make it impossible technologies are closer to being realized.

See also

  • Technology portal
  • List of emerging technologies
  • Foresight
  • Futures studies
  • Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies
  • Institute on Biotechnology and the Human Future
  • Technological change
    • Accelerating change
      • Moore’s law
    • Innovation
    • Technological revolution
  • Transhumanism
    • Technological singularity
  • Upcoming software

References

Footnotes
  1. Jump up^ Rotolo, D., Hicks, D., Martin, BR (2015) What is an emerging technology? Research Policy 44 (10): 1827-1843. Availablehere
  2. Jump up^ other examples of developments as “emerging technologies” can be foundhere- O’Reilly Emerging Technology Conference 2008.
  3. Jump up^ International Congress Innovation and Technology XXI: Strategies and Policies Towards the XXI Century, & Soares, ODD (1997). Innovation and technology: Strategies and policies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.
  4. Jump up^ Emerging Technologies: From Hindsight to Foresight. Edited by Edna F. Einsiedel. UBC Press.
  5. Jump up^ Emerging technologies: where is the federal government on the high tech curve? : hearing before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology of the Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives, One Hundred Sixth Congress, second session, April 24, 2000
  6. Jump up^ See: Wired Magazine, “Why the future doesn’t need us”,
  7. Jump up^ Joy, Bill (2000). “Why the future does not need us” . Retrieved 2005-11-14 .
  8. Jump up^ Bard, Alexander; Söderqvist, Jan (8 May 2012). The Futurica Trilogy . Stockholm Text. ASIN  9187173247 – via Amazon.
  9. Jump up^ Bostrom, Nick (2002). “Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios” . Retrieved 2006-02-21 .
  10. Jump up^ Warwick, K: “March of the Machines”, University of Illinois Press, 2004
  11. Jump up^ McKibben, Bill (2003). Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age . Times Books. ISBN  0-8050-7096-6 .
  12. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Raymond (2005).The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Viking Adult. ISBN 0-670-03384-7.
  13. Jump up^ Ford, Martin R. (2009), The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future , Acculating Publishing, ISBN  978-1448659814 . ( e-book available free online .)
  14. Jump up^ econfuture (14 April 2011). “Machine Learning: A job killer?” . Retrieved 28 May 2017 .
  15. Jump up^ Saenz, Aaron (15 December 2009). “Martin Ford Asks: Will Automation Lead to Economic Collapse?” . Retrieved 28 May 2017 .
  16. Jump up^ Circuit boardsstarted development in 1960s. An example, among others, includes Stacked Printed Circuit Board by Victor F. Dahlgren et al. US Patent 3,409,732 . See also:System in Package(SiP) orChip Stack MCM
  17. Jump up^ This designdrawingmeasures in diameter 200+ m (660 ft. +).
  18. Jump up^ “Home – Office of Jeremy Rifkin” . Office of Jeremy Rifkin . Retrieved 28 May 2017 .
  19. Jump up^ Estes, Adam Clark. “3D-Printed Guns Are Only Getting Better, and Scarier”. Retrieved 28 May 2017.
  20. Jump up^ “Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide” . www.wiley.com . Retrieved 28 May 2017 .
  21. Jump up^ “Approval Letter – Provenge” . Food and Drug Administration . 2010-04-29.
  22. Jump up^ “What’s Coming After Dendreon’s Provenge?” . Oct 18, 2010.
  23. Jump up^ Siegelbaum, DJ (2008-04-23). “In Search of a Hamburger Test-Tube” . Time . Retrieved 2009-04-30 .
  24. Jump up^ “World’s first lab-grown burger is eaten in London” . August 5, 2013 . Retrieved 28 May 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  25. Jump up^ Fountain, Henry (12 May 2013). “Engineering the $ 325,000 In Vitro Burger” . Retrieved 28 May 2017 – via NYTimes.com.
  26. Jump up^ Temple, James (2009-02-23). “The Future of Food: The No-kill Carnivore” . Portfolio.com . Retrieved 2009-08-07 .
  27. Jump up^ Preliminary Economics Study of Cultured Meat ArchivedOctober 3, 2015, at theWayback Machine., EXmoor Pharma Concepts, 2008
  28. Jump up^ Drexler, K. Eric (1986). Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology . Doubleday. ISBN  0-385-19973-2 .
  29. Jump up^ Drexler, K. Eric (1992). Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation . New York: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN  0-471-57547-X .
  30. Jump up^ “robotics” . Oxford Dictionaries . Retrieved 4 February 2011 .
  31. Jump up^ Lindvall, O .; Kokaia, Z. (2006). “Stem cells for the treatment of neurological disorders”. Nature . 441 (7097): 1094-1096. Bibcode :2006Natur.441.1094L . doi : 10.1038 / nature04960 . PMID  16810245 .
  32. Jump up^ Weissman IL (January 2000). “Stem cells: units of development, units of regeneration, and units in evolution” . Cell . 100 (1): 157-68. doi :10.1016 / S0092-8674 (00) 81692-X . PMID  10647940 . as cited inGurtner GC; Callaghan MJ; Longaker MT (2007). “Progress and potential for regenerative medicine” . Annu. Rev. Med . 58 : 299-312. doi : 10.1146 / annurev.med.58.082405.095329 . PMID  17076602 .

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