Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil


American author, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil HAS Become Well Known For His predictions about artificial intelligence and the human species, Mainly concernant the technological singularity. He predicts that Artificial Intelligence would outsmart the human brain in computational capabilities by mid-21st century. His first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines , published in 1990, put forth his theories on the results of the growing use of technology and predicted explosive growth in the internet, among other predictions. Later works, 1999’s The Age of Spiritual Machines and 2005’s The Singularity is Near Outlined other theories Including the rise of cloud of nano-robots (nanobots ) called foglets and the development of Human Body 2.0 and 3.0, that is , nanotechnology is incorporated into many internal organs.

Accuracy of predictions

The Age of Intelligent Machines 

Kurzweil’s first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, was published in 1990. It provides information to the Soviet Union on the subject of telematics . [1] In 2005, Mikhail Gorbachev told Kurzweil that emerging decentralized electronic communication “was a big factor” for fostering democracy in the Soviet Union. [2]

Kurzweil extrapolated the performance of chess software to predict which computers would beat the best human players “by the year 2000”. [3] In May 1997 World Champion Garry Kasparov was defeated by IBM’s Deep Bluecomputer in a well-publicized chess tournament. [4]

Perhaps most significantly, Kurzweil foresaw the explosive growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. [5] At the time of the publication of the Age of Intelligent Machines , there were only 2.6 million Internet users in the world, [6] and the medium was often unreliable outside academic, military, corporate and other non-technical users to use, and mostly lacking a broad range of content. He also stated that the Internet would have an effect on the Internet, but that it would be useful in the future for the purpose of providing information to international networks of libraries, data bases, and information services. this quote needs a quote ]Moreover, Kurzweil correctly foresaw that the preferred mode of Internet access would inevitably be through wireless systems, and it was also correct to estimate that the latter would become practical for widespread use in the early 21st century. quote needed ]

The Age of Spiritual Machines 

In 1999, Kurzweil published a second book titled The Age of Spiritual Machines , which goes into more depth explaining his futurist ideas. The third and final section of the book is devoted to elucidating the specific course of advancement Kurzweil believes the world will experience the next century. Titled “To Face the Future”, the section is divided into four chapters named after “2009”, “2019”, “2029”, and “2099”. For every chapter, Kurzweil issues predictions about what life and technology will be like in that year. quote needed ]

Kurzweil Restated His Earlier prediction from The Age of Intelligent Machines Regarding the advent of pocket-sized, cheap, text-to-speech converters for the blind by 2009. The “Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader” (K-NFB Reader) was introduced in 2005 at a price of $ 3,495. The device was portable, but not cheap, pocket-sized device of the prediction. [7] By 2008, a software version for the Nokia N82 smartphone was available for $ 1,595. [8] A version for iOS phones was released for $ 99 in 2014 and Android for $ 75 in 2015 [9] .

The Singularity Is Near 

While this book focuses on the future of technology and the human race as the Age of Intelligent Machines and the Age of Spiritual Machines , Kurzweil makes very few concrete, short-term predictions in The Singularity Is Near , though longer-term visions abound.

Kurzweil predicted that, in 2005, supercomputers with the computational capabilities to simulate protein folding will be introduced. In 2010, a supercomputer simulated protein folding for a very small protein at an atomic level over a period of a millisecond. The protein folded and unfolded, with the results closely matching experimental data. [10] The biyearly protein structure prediction contest CASP shows that the current algorithms for structure prediction are still impractical for determining the former structure of most proteins. quote needed ]

Other sources

In an October 2002 article published on his website , Kurzweil stated that ” Deep Fritz -like chess programs running on ordinary personal computers will routinely defeat all humans later in this decade.” [11] Deep Fritz is a computer chess program – generally considered superior to the older Deep Blue – which has a negative impact on human rights. [12] Due to advances in personal computer performance, the Deep Fritz program can be run on a regular basis, and different versions are available for purchase. [13] [14] In September 2002, Chessmaster 9000Ubisoft, defeated the US Chess Champion and Grandmaster Larry Christiansen in a four-game match. [15] In 2006 reigning World Champion Vladimir Kramnik was defeated 4: 2 by Deep Fritz , running on a multiprocessor personal computer. [16]

Ray Kurzweil’s response

According to Ray Kurzweil, 89 out of 108 predictions were made by the end of 2009. An additional 13 are what he calls “essentially correct” (meaning that they were likely to be made within a few years of 2009), for a total of 102 out of 108. Another 3 are okay Partially, 2 look like They are about 10 years off, and 1, qui was tongue in cheek anyway, was just wrong. [17] Kurzweil later released a more detailed analysis of the accuracy of his predictions up to 2009, arguing that most were correct. [18]

Future predictions

The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)

Late 20th century

  • Predictions that he and his company will create a “voice-activated typewriter” by 1995.

Early 2000s

  • Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages.
  • Designed to translate words into computer text.
  • Exoskeletal, robotic prostheses leg allow the paraplegic to walk.
  • Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call’s nature and priority.
  • “Cybernetic drivers” can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads.

Early 21st century

  • The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Media technology permits students to manipulate and interact with virtual systems and personalities.
  • A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector. Tailoring of products for patients is common.
  • Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body.
  • Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment.

2010

  • PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet.

2020-2050

  • Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people.
  • By 2020, there will be a new world government .

2020-2050

  • A computer passes the Turing Test , becoming the first true artificial intelligence.

Kurzweil HAS wagered That Even His predictions will be true, on the website Long Bets Betting contre Mitchell Kapor , founder of Lotus Software Corporation for a payout of $ 20,000, or $ 10,000 each.

Centuries hence

  • Computer intelligence becomes superior to human intelligence in all areas.

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)

2009

  • The majority of reading is done on paper, paper documents are still common. [19]
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
  • Intelligent roads and drivers are in use, mostly on highways. Local roads still require full human interaction.
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
  • Most portable computers do not have moving parts or keyboards.
  • Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, they are mainly used for their computer-related tasks. [20]
  • Worn provide worn worn provide provide provide provide provide,. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated. Automated for automated for automated automated
  • Many devices offer high-speed network access via wireless technology. [21]
  • Digital products such as books, songs, games, movies and software are typically acquired as files via a wireless network and have no physical object associated with them. [21]
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripherals use wireless communication.
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands.
  • Computer displays built into the eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
  • Computers can recognize their owner’s face from a picture or video.
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
  • Sound producing speakers are very small in size and high resolution.
  • A $ 1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second.
  • Supercomputers have been built that can operate at 20 petaflops (roughly the hardware-equivalent of the human brain according to Kurzweil).
  • Consumer-level computers across the world can network together to form decentralized supercomputers, many of which have the computational capacity of the human brain.
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of “chaotic” or complexity theory computing.
  • Research has been initiated to reverse engineer the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
  • Autonomous nano-engineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
  • Digital documents routinely display moving images and sounds.
  • Artificial voices sound fully human.
  • Phones can translate to different languages ​​and read them back aloud. [22]
  • Telephone communication is mostly wireless.
  • Cell phones display high resolution images. Users can engage in audio-video teleconferences.
  • High resolution audio-visual cybersex is common, aided by falling costs of high-speed internet and computer hardware.
  • At least 50% of all transactions are conducted over the internet.
  • Personal artificial digital assistants are in widespread use. They can understand spoken language, make up answers to questions, set appointments, conduct transactions, tell jokes, and more.
  • An increasing share of the population is working from home and while traveling.
  • The typical home has over 100 computers in it, many of which are embedded in appliances. [23]
  • Though not yet ubiquitous, many households have one or more robots that perform some type of housekeeping.
  • People often play music with digital musicians. (In “How My Predictions Are Faring” written in 2010, Kurzweil cited Guitar Hero and Apple’s GarageBand Magic Jam as two examples.)
  • Audio-visual virtual reality has entered the mass market. Users can digitally tour real estate or play in highly immersive fantasy worlds. Tactile (haptic) VR technology is still primitive however.
  • Militaries rely heavily on armed unmanned airborne devices.
  • Death rates for cancer and heart disease have continued to fall as a result of improvements in medical technology.
  • Telemedicine is common. Devices monitor and relay health-related data of many patients and remotely. Teleconferencing between doctor and patient is also popular.
  • Computers and medical software are capable of diagnosis and diagnosis. They are routinely used to help diagnose diseases by analyzing scans of patients.
  • And those who are in the medical field, which include haptic feedback and simulated patients.

2019

  • The computational capacity of a $ 4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed up computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality with glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user’s field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment of the user’s perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in their homes by the glasses, so when the user’s eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could be the real world.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with people is more about dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, but the concept of what is a computer is a large computer connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional lattice nanotube are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a more complex organ are being transferred to computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and used in specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. “Nanoengineered machines” begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The above-mentioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this purpose.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, the adult mentors and the mentor are more than just academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but they are not useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or touch sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found in some people in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by normal people with disabilities (eg, Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition , speech synthesis) exist.
  • Anyone can wirelessly access the internet with wearable devices such as computerized glasses, contacts, and watches.
  • PCs, laptops, and cell phones still exist, but most of their functions can be performed by wearable gadgets. Examples include reading books, listening to music, watching movies, playing games, and teleconferencing.
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (eg tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. “Virtual sex” -in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a “simulated” partner that only exists on a computer-becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual and auditory virtual reality has come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a VR booth. It is commonly used for computer and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and improves the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions between people and simulated retailers, or between a virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the driving – unassisted. Moreover, when people take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control of the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads have automated driving systems-networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Personal prototype flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which holds some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be granted more rights.
  • Most decisions made by humans with consultation machine intelligence. For example, a doctor may seek the advice of a digital assistant. A lawyer might use a virtual researcher. A shopper can receive recommendations from a software program that has learned his or her shopping clothes.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and their simulated personalities are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismissed the possibility that the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface.
  • Public places and workplaces are constantly being monitored. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this country only
  • Virtual artists-creative computers capable of making their own art and music-emerge in all fields of the arts.
  • Most flying weapons are bird-sized robots. Some are as small as insects.
  • Average life expectancy is over 100.
  • Computerized watches, clothing, and jewelry. They can detect many types of diseases and offer recommendations for treatment.

2029

  • A $ 1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
  • The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.
  • Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
  • Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed by reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
  • The eyeglasses and headphones that are obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
  • Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
  • Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers “know” literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
  • Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality-with complete sensory stimulation-without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a different place at any time. This technology is in widespread use.
  • Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
  • The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ a few people. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
  • The rise of artificial intelligence creates a real ” robot rights ” movement, and there is open, public debate over what spells of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic growth and of greater numbers of other people with the extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes “human being.”
  • Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists.
  • Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
  • Reverse engineering of the human brain
  • Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and intelligence sharing of machine intelligence
  • Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially

2049

  • Food is commonly “assembled” by nanomachines. This food is externally indistinguishable from “natural” food, but it can be made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the molecular level. This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.
  • The distinction between virtual reality and “real” reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects.

2072

  • Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical.

2099

  • The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.
  • Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds.
  • Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
  • Humans and machines merge in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with AI’s.
  • In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist.
  • Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form.
  • The vast majority of the Earth’s sentient beings are capable of intelligent Internet computing (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099). These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves in the physical world by creating or developing individuals, with the possibility of being able to control multiple bodies at once.
  • Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many people are there on Earth.
  • This new plasticity of consciousness and ability to join the minds of aliens with the nature of self-identity.
  • The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments. Actually having two people physically meet in the real world to have a conversation.
  • Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens , the use of computerized implants The small fraction of humans who opt to remain “natural” and unmodified effectively exists, and thus it is impossible to fully interact with AI’s and highly modified humans.
  • “Natural” humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, they are respected by AI for giving rise to the machines.
  • Since knowledge and skills can be downloaded and understood by most intelligent people, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle. Free from this time-consuming burden, AI’s now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions.
  • They are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously.
  • Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of a thousandth of a trillionth of a meter) might be possible.
  • AI’s communicate via a shared electronic language.
  • Artwork and music created by machines and areas of the light spectrum and normal frequencies.
  • Money has deflated in value, meaning all sorts of goods and services have become cheaper.
  • Some people are at least as old as Baby Boomers are still alive and well.
  • Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.
  • AI’s frequently make “backup copies” of themselves, guaranteeing a spell of immortality should the original AI be killed.
  • The concept of “life expectancy” has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers.
  • The pace of change 22nd century nears.

Thousands of years from now

  • “Intelligent beings consider the fate of all the Universe.”

The Singularity is Near (2005)

2010

  • Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking does not yet exist. ( IBM Sequoia )
  • Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, and will have many different forms.
  • Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.

2020s

  • The decade in which “Bridge Two”, the revolution in Genetics / Biotechnology, is to reach its peak. During the 2020s, humans will have the means of changing their genes; Not just “designer babies” will be possible, but baby boomers through the rejuvenation of all of one’s body’s tissues and organs by transforming one’s skin cells into youthful versions of every other cell type. People will be able to “reprogram” their own biochemistry away from disease and aging, radically extending life expectancy.
  • Computers become smaller and more integrated into everyday life.
  • More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
  • High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
  • Eyeglasses that beam images onto the users’ retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for advertising which will be wirelessly transmitted to various businesses. This was fictionalized in Denno Coil .
  • The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring “virtual assistant” programs that can help the user with various daily tasks.
  • Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be translated into English into a foreign language.
  • Cell phones will be built into the walls of their homes.
  • Advertisements will be used to provide specific information to a specific point, providing a localized message that only a single person can hear.

2015

  • By now, it is likely that “clean a house” will be within the capabilities of a robot robot.

2018

  • 10 13 bits (= 10 TB) of computer memory-roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain-will cost $ 1000.

10 terabytes of storage have been reached for $ 535 (Seagate Barracuda 10TB) in mid 2016.

2020s

  • The decade in which “Bridge Three”, the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin with: “The humans in the world”, as they do not matter how much humanity fine-tunes its biology, they will never be able to otherwise. This decade also marks the revolution in Robotics ( Strong AI ), as an AI is expected to pass the test Turingby the last year of the decade (2029), meaning it can pass for a human being (though the first AI is likely to be the equivalent of an average, educated human). What follows then will be an era of consolidation in which nonbiological intelligence will undergo exponential growth (Runaway AI), eventually leading to the extraordinary expansion contemplated by the Singularity, in which human intelligence is multiplied by trillions by the mid-2040s.
  • Early in this decade, human will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $ 1,000 personal computer, following up by effective software models of human intelligence towards the middle of the decade: this will be enabled through the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing for a complete understanding of all the regions of the human brain. end of this decade.
  • Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
  • As One of Their First practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical practical purposes.
  • Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
  • Accurate computer simulations of the whole human brain will be achieved by these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
  • Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to “feed” cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food obsolete.
  • By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in general use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacturing costs. The true cost of any product is the amount of the schematics.
  • By the later part of this decade, it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
  • The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as nanobots-infinitely more sustainable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism-becoming sufficiently advanced.
  • The many variations of “Human Body 2.0” (as Kurzweil calls it) are incrementally accumulated in this and the following decade, with each organ and body system having its own course of refinement and development. It consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, brain-extension and improved skeleton.

2023

  • 10 16 calculations per second-roughly the equivalent of one human brain-will cost $ 1,000.

2025

  • The most likely year for the beginning of advanced nanotechnology.
  • Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.

2030s

  • Mind uploading becomes successful and successful as they become software-based: living on the Web, projecting their bodies whenever they want to, or living indefinitely “mind file”. Eventually, all human beings (including those with transbiological 2.0 or 3.0 bodies) will migrate to this postbiological state except for those who wish to remain unenhanced: the transbiological era giving way to the postbiological era.
  • Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without any need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally off the “real” world and leaving the desired virtual experience.
  • Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
  • Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person’s daily life as experienced beamers will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to the characters in being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
  • Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples’ minds will be able to expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to “telepathically” communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
  • The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person’s intelligence, memories and personality.
  • The many variations of “Human Body 3.0” are fully implemented during this and the following decade; It is more likely to be fixed, formally shaped, and will alter its shape by means of foglet-like nanotechnology.

2040s

  • People spend most of their time in full immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited the Matrix as a good example of what the virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
  • Foglets are in use.
  • Nonbiological intelligence will be more capable than biological intelligence.

2045: The Singularity

  • $ 1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that they are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
  • The technological singularity OCCURS have artificial intelligences surpass Human Beings have the smartest and MOST able life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans can not even understand what is going on. The machines enter into a “runaway reaction” of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of AIs appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus can not be accurately predicted (hence the term “Singularity”).
  • The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (because not impossible) because sharp distinctions between humans and humans.

Post-2045: “Waking up” the Universe

  • The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, Such As memristors integrated into Crossbar latches ) can be shrunk is atteint. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
  • Because of this, AIs convert more and more of the Earth’s matter into engineered, computational substrate can of Supporting more AIs up to the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer, except for A Few nature reserves set aside on the planetary surface of For Those humans Who Decided to remain in their natural state. “MOSH’s” (Mostly Original Substrate Human) who would like to remain purely organic would still be able to help them in the world. they may live on their normal lives unless they enhance themselves.
  • At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines is to convert all of the matter and energy into the universe into similar massive computers. Radiate outward from Earth, first into the Solar System and then out into space , then galaxies in all directions, utilizing starships that are Von Neumann probes with nanobot crews, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons, and meteoroids and reassembling them into computers. This, in effect, “wakes up” the universe as all the inanimate “dumb” matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into a structure capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
  • Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously will technology advance the Singularity.
  • The process of “waking up” the universe could be completed by the end of the 22nd century, provided by the speed of light.
  • With the whole world made in a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, AI and human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of “life”) would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Humanity will still not possess infinite levels of an infinite measure, becoming, as Kurzweil writes, “moving inexorably toward this monotheistic conception of God, though never reaching this ideal “; even with theories such as the holographic universe . The final chapter notes that, if possible, the ability to create and colonize other universes(and if there is a way to do this, it is likely to be overheating, bypassing the speed of light) could indefinitely, akin to a mathematical singularity . If not, then saturating humanity’s own universe will remain their ultimate fate.

Some indeterminate points within a few decades from now

  • Space technology is becoming more and more effective as it continues to provide protection against the threat of asteroid impacts.
  • The antitechnology Luddite movement will grow more vocal and possibly resort to violence as these people become more and more vulnerable to the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind ( artificial intelligence). The Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the market of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in the world frozen at a fixed level of development.
  • The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommuting . This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will not be near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will be less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.

Other sources

Kurzweil said in a 2006 C-SPAN2 interview that “nanotechnology-based” flying cars would be available in 20 years. [24]

Kurzweil has said that by 2014, humanity will reach a “tipping point” where the cost-per-watt of solar energy is cheaper than that of coal and oil: By capturing only 0.03 percent of the sun’s energy that falls on earth, humanity could meet virtually all of its projected energy needs up to 2030 [25] (thirty trillion watts); this will be able to withstand extremely inexpensive, lightweight, and efficient nano-engineered solar panels together with nano-fuel cells to store and distribute energy. Kurzweil believes, by the end of the 2020s, humans will be able to completely replace fossil fuels.

Kurzweil said the following in a November 2007 Computerworld interview:

  • Speech-to-speech translation will be available in cell phones in either 2009 or 2010. [26]
  • By 2017, computers will become more popular in the environment, largely owing to smaller size. Some will be woven into clothing and will be “self-organizing.” [27]
  • By the same year, will be in use. The devices will work by beaming images directly onto the retinas of their users, creating large, three-dimensional floating images in the person’s field of view. Such devices would provide a visual experience with a very large television, but would be highly portable, combining the best features of a portable video player and a widescreen TV. The glasses will deliver full-immersion virtual reality. [27]
  • By 2017, “augmented reality” will exist: “The VR glasses” will have been developed and will be developed in the future. If the user looks at a person or a person, the computer will provide information through a “heads-up-display” beamed onto the person’s retinas. The devices could also be used for monitoring, navigating, and querying for general information. [27]
  • “By 2019, we will be able to overcome the major diseases that kill 95 percent of us in the world, and we will be dramatically slowing and reversing the dozen or so processes that underlie aging.” [28]
  • By 2022, medical technology will be more likely than not, and the “tipping point” of human life expectancy will be achieved, with every year of research guaranteed to be at least one year of life expectancy. Kurzweil also states that 3-4 months of life expectancy were added in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and treatments. [26]
  • Cell phones and PCs will be increasingly popular in the global grid of computers wirelessly connected to the Internet. Instead of each device, it creates a network of interconnected networks with millions of nodes.
  • By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist. [26]

Criticism

In the cover story of the IEEE Spectrum , John Rennie criticized Kurzweil’s predictions: “It’s a question of the most important predictions of the world. the unfalsifiable. ” [29]

References

  1. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1990). The Age of Intelligent Machines . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. p. 446. ISBN  0-262-11121-7 .
  2. Jump up^ Renee Blodgett (April 20, 2005). “Ray Kurzweil on Gorbachev” . We Blog The World . Retrieved April 16, 2012 .
  3. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1990). The Age of Intelligent Machines . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. p. 133. ISBN  0-262-11121-7 .
  4. Jump up^ Weber, Bruce (May 12, 1997). “Swift and Slashing, Kasparav Computer Topples” . The New York Times . Retrieved February 13, 2013 .
  5. Jump up^ Coffman, KG (2001). Growth of the Internet (PDF) . AT & T Labs Research.
  6. Jump up^ Wyatt, Sally (2001). “Fleeing the dot.com era – decline in Internet usage”. UNESCO Courier .
  7. Jump up^ “The KNFB Reader becomes the Property of the Nation’s Blind” . Retrieved February 25, 2016 .
  8. Jump up^ “KNFB Reader Frequently Asked Questions” . Archived from the original on February 8, 2009.
  9. Jump up^ https://www.inclusiveandroid.com/content/award-winning-text-recognition-app-gives-blind-access-print-now-available-android
  10. Jump up^ Heidi Ledford (October 2010). “Supercomputer sets protein-folding record” . Nature . doi : 10.1038 / news.2010.541 . Retrieved January 8,2011 .
  11. Jump up^ Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider? ArchivedJune 16, 2008, at theWayback Machine.
  12. Jump up^ The chess games of Deep Fritz (Computer). Chessgames.com. Retrieved on May 3, 2016.
  13. Jump up^ Chess Software – Deep Fritz 10 – MultiprocessorArchivedVersionOctober 24, 2007, at theWayback Machine.
  14. Jump up^ Deep Fritz 8 ArchivedOctober 29, 2008, at theWayback Machine.
  15. Jump up^ Chessmaster 9000 US Reigning Defeats Chess Champion Larry Christiansen; Chessmaster Wins Four Game 2.5 to 1.5 Match Via Live Internet Broadcast on ChessClub.com. gamezone.com (September 27, 2011).
  16. Jump up^ Kramnik vs. Deep Fritz: Computer wins match by 4: 2 | Chess News. Chessbase.com (April 5, 2016). Retrieved on 2016-05-03.
  17. Jump up^ Ray Kurzweil Responds to the Issue of Accuracy of His Predictions, Next Big Future, January 18, 2010
  18. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (October 2010)How My Predictions Are Faring.
  19. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence . New York, NY: Penguin. p. 191. ISBN  9780140282023 .
  20. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence . New York, NY: Penguin. p. 189. ISBN  9780140282023 .
  21. ^ Jump up to:b Kurzweil, Ray (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence . New York, NY: Penguin. p. 190. ISBN  9780140282023 .
  22. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence . New York, NY: Penguin. p. 193. ISBN  9780140282023 .
  23. Jump up^ Kurzweil, Ray (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence . New York, NY: Penguin. p. 195. ISBN  978-0-14-028202-3 .
  24. Jump up^ In Depth with Ray Kurzweil . Book TV . November 5, 2006 . Retrieved April 22, 2015 .
  25. Jump up^ Human 2.0. By: Kurzweil, Ray, New Scientist, 02624079, September 24, 2005, Vol. 187, Issue 2518
  26. ^ Jump up to:c Lamont, Ian. (November 13, 2007) The Kurzweil interview, continued: Portable computing, virtual reality, immortality, and strong vs. narrow AI | Computerworld Blogs . Blogs.computerworld.com. Retrieved on 2016-05-03.
  27. ^ Jump up to:c “The Grill: Ray Kurzweil talks about ‘augmented reality’ and the Singularity . Retrieved December 22, 2007 .
  28. Jump up^ Lowe, Derek . “Ray Kurzweil’s Future” . In The Pipeline . Science . Retrieved November 21, 2015 .
  29. Jump up^ John Rennie (December 2010). “Kurzweil’s Ray slippery futurism” . IEEE Spectrum . Retrieved December 3, 2010 .

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *